The NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series is getting closer and closer to their first ever Chase. Just three races at Iowa Speedway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and Daytona International Raceway stand between 12 drivers and a chance at the 2026 O’Reilly championship.
Currently, seven drivers sit within one race of the Chase cutline. From first-time winners to rookies to series veterans, these seven drivers all have a very different path to ending up on the bubble. EchoPark Speedway, as advertised, was a wildcard weekend. The seven bubble drivers all had very different races, which could be an indicator of things to come at Daytona International Speedway.
Virtual Locks and Eliminations
Justin Allgaier and Jesse Love are mathematically locked into the Chase. Though not mathematically locked, Sheldon Creed, Corey Day, and Carson Kvapil are all over two races to the good of the cutline and have a strong chance to clinch in Indianapolis. Brandon Jones, Austin Hill, and Sammy Smith are all also over one race above the cutline and will likely make it barring multiple DNFs.
On the flip side, Blaine Perkins, Patrick Staropli, Josh Bilicki, Lavar Scott, Kyle Sieg, and Ryan Ellis are all mathematically eliminated. While not officially out, Brennan Poole, Dean Thompson, Jeremy Clements, Harrison Burton, and Jeb Burton are over two races below the cutline and face elimination at Indianapolis. Anthony Alfredo is over one race below the cutline, and would need a career three-race stretch with at least one win to optimize his chances.
Drivers Above
9th: Parker Retzlaff +71
Few expected Parker Retzlaff and Viking Motorsports to be in the thick of Chase contention in the preseason. Retzlaff has set career bests in top-fives and top-tens, and appears set to earn an underdog Chase berth. The 23-year-old is coming off his fourth top-five and tenth top-ten of the season with a third-place finish at EchoPark.
Indianapolis and Iowa saw a pair of top-15s for Retzlaff in 2025 driving for Alpha Prime Racing. Viking Motorsports also captured an 11th-place finish with Matt DiBenedetto behind the wheel.
Pending disaster, such as his early crashes at Kansas Speedway and Dover Motor Speedway, Retzlaff should earn both he and his team’s first Chase appearance. He could even earn it a race early if both weeks go well and other bubble drivers struggle. If disaster strikes, the superspeedways have been kind to Retzlaff this season and Daytona could propel him into the Chase or even give him his first win.
10th: Sam Mayer +33
From a career best to a career low season, Mayer has had his share of disappointment. The driver of the No. 41 Haas Factory Team Chevrolet hasn’t been the luckiest, and he’s well over two races behind his teammate Creed in points. Some of this is due to five DNFs, but never before has Mayer only had five top-fives this deep into a season.
That statistic could easily change, however. Mayer has won both his starts at Iowa Speedway and is the defending runner-up at Indianapolis. The 23-year-old will likely need two strong results, as superspeedways have been a hardship this season. Outside of one top-ten in the spring EchoPark race, his best finish is 24th with a 31st-place finish during the summer race. If Mayer reaches Daytona with his points cushion eroded even further, it could prove costly.
11th: Brent Crews +18
Despite missing four starts due to age constraints, Brent Crews presently sits above the cutline. This was fueled by eight top-fives and 11 top-tens in only 17 races. In nearly every race he’s finished, Crews has been a contender to win. If he keeps this up, the 18-year-old should easily make the Chase.
While Crews has never been to any of the next three tracks, that has hardly mattered so far this season. He earned a runner-up in his first ever drafting race and a top-five in his intermediate track debut. If it weren’t for three DNFs in the last seven races, including a 24th-place at EchoPark, Crews may well be a spot or two higher in the points. As long as he keeps things clean until the Chase, Crews should make it in no problem.
12th: Taylor Gray +17
Crews’ Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Taylor Gray currently sits 12th in the standings. Despite running the full season, Gray has just one top-five on ovals, a win at Kansas. Like Mayer, Gray has had his share of bad luck including running out of fuel from the top-five at Sonoma Raceway, a 33rd-place finish at EchoPark, and a five race stretch in the spring with only one finish better than 29th.
Indianapolis is the sole bright spot in the next three races, as Gray nearly won the 2025 race before ultimately settling for third. Gray has one top-five and two finishes below 25th at Daytona, and a 17th-place run in his only Iowa start. If any of the next three drivers want to make the Chase, passing Gray seems to be their prime opportunity. The 21-year-old certainly has the speed, but the execution has been questionable.
Below the Cutline
13th: Rajah Caruth -17
Rajah Caruth has had an interesting first full O’Reilly Auto Parts Series season. He has split the schedule between the JR Motorsports No. 88 and the Jordan Anderson Racing No. 32. In 12 starts with the No. 88, Caruth has earned one top-five and five top-tens. In nine starts in the No. 32 he earned an additional two top-tens.
Indianapolis will be Caruth’s final race in the No. 32. If he can leave within 30 points of the cutline and cut that down a bit further in the No. 88 at Iowa, Daytona will become a prime opportunity. Caruth was a serious contender to win at EchoPark and he has three top-tens in the four superspeedway races this season. Depending on his proximity to the cutline, a win at Daytona might even be the difference in making the Chase.
14th: William Sawalich -21
William Sawalich has improved noticeably from his rookie season, but he still sits below the cutline with three races to go. The 19-year-old has one win, five top-fives and nine top-tens in the JGR No. 18. A top-five at EchoPark is his only top-20 at a superspeedway so far, snapping a four race streak of missing the top-ten.
While 2025 was a difficult rookie season as a whole, Indianapolis and Iowa were two of his better results with sixth and 11th place finishes respectively. Matching those results will be key, as Sawalich sits over 20 points below the cutline. Superspeedway racing has not been his strong suit so far, and so entering Daytona above the cutline is the 19-year-old’s best chance at securing his first Chase appearance.
15th: Ryan Sieg -66
Ryan Sieg is just barely within a race of the cutline, and would likely need three stellar finishes to have a chance at making it. In his last three races at Indianapolis, Iowa, and Daytona, the 39-year-old finished fifth, eighth, and third. This season Sieg has one top-five and six top-tens. He entered the final overtime restart at EchoPark on the second row, but ran out of fuel and fell to 17th place.
If Sieg wants to make the Chase, he needs to duplicate or improve upon his previous strong runs at these tracks. It might even take a long-awaited first career win to propel the driver-owner to his fourth postseason appearance. But in a season of several first wins and with the chaos Daytona tends to bring, anything is possible.
Owner’s Chase
With a few differences between driver and owner points (Carson Kvapil and Connor Zilisch splitting the No. 1, Brent Crews missing four races in the No. 19, and Rajah Caruth splitting the No. 88 with three of Hendrick’s Cup drivers), there is some difference in the battle for the driver’s and owner’s Chase.
The JRM No. 1, 7, and 88 entries are locked in, while Richard Childress Racing’s Nos. 2 and 21, Haas’ No. 00, Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 17, JGR’s Nos. 19 and 20, and JRM’s No. 8 all have over a one race lead on the cutline.
Four full-time entries sit within one race of the cutline. The No. 99 is 54 points above, with the No. 41 next at 16 points up. The No. 54 sits 16 points out with the No. 18 next behind at 37 points out.
