Last weekend, Tyler Reddick became the sixth driver in NASCAR history to open the season with back-to-back wins. He was the first to do so in 17 years, winning in the Daytona 500 and at EchoPark Speedway in Atlanta. Already his weekend is off to a strong start; on Saturday Reddick won the pole position in his No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota.
Of those five other drivers, none were able to turn two straight into three straight. Marvin Panch came the closest in 1957, finishing third at the Titusville-Cocoa Airport after wins at Willow Springs International Motorsports Park and Concord Speedway. Three wins to open up a season remains unseen by even NASCAR’s greatest giants.
When the NASCAR Cup Series rolls off the grid at Circuit of the Americas on Sunday, Reddick will be chasing history. His odds may be small according to the trends of history, but they’re made larger by a closer look at the underlying numbers.
A post from the NASCAR Insights X account on Thursday highlighted that Reddick has the highest average running position at COTA since the Next Gen car debuted there in 2022. His 5.00 figure outpaces second-place William Byron by over one and a half positions. That means on a typical NASCAR Cup Series lap at COTA, Reddick is in the top five while no other driver is as likely to be in the top six.
To Become the King…
Potentially the greatest obstacle to a Tyler Reddick three-peat is NASCAR’s reigning road course ace, Shane van Gisbergen. Winning five of the circuit’s six road course races in 2025, van Gisbergen has become the unofficial favorite any time right turns are involved.
As it so happens though, COTA is one road course where Shane van Gisbergen has not won. He finished 20th in his 2024 debut there with Kaulig Racing, before progressing to sixth in 2025. His lone O’Reilly Auto Parts Series start at COTA was a 27th-place run. In the same average running position statistic where Tyler Reddick reigns supreme, van Gisbergen ranks seventh among active Cup Series drivers at 10.75.
In all fairness to van Gisbergen, his stats are likely affected by his learning curve with the peculiarities of NASCAR’s Next Gen car. He’ll race on Sunday with greater familiarity and a potentially easier time imposing his road course mastery upon the rest of the field.
History Made and Repeated
Still, an ounce of results is worth a pound of speculation. Tyler Reddick has won at COTA before, doing so in the 2023 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. In the Next Gen era he’s yet to record a COTA finish outside the top five. Where other drivers have loads of potential, Reddick has equal quantities of proven success.
Reddick’s finishing results at COTA are as stellar as his average running position; his staggering 4.6 average finish comes along with him being the all-time top-fives leader at the track (four in five starts). While Alex Bowman and Ross Chastain are close behind, neither one are statistically on-par with Reddick.
Plus, the strength of Reddick’s numbers doesn’t even factor in the age-old sports trope of being ‘hot’. If ever an athlete were in a zone, it’d be Tyler Reddick now. Twice in two weeks the 23XI Racing driver has found wins in improbable situations. If hot streaks are real, it’s easy to envision Reddick maintaining executing again at a track that’s proven to be one of his best.
“Am I gonna throw away a second place to [set the record?] Probably not,” Reddick said after his Atlanta win. “But if at any point this week I’m running out of reasons to be motivated to go win, I’ll keep that in my back pocket.”
The DuraMax Grand Prix will run on Sunday, March 1 at 3:30 p.m. TV coverage is on FOX.
