With the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season quickly approaching, many drivers are transitioning into new eras. Some have moved teams, others have new personnel, and one is preparing for his rookie season in the Cup Series.
Also looming large is the newly reformed championship format. No longer do eliminations and win-and-you’re in determine the Cup Series champ. Now, the format is strikingly similar to what was used from 2004 to 2013: the Chase for the Cup.
How will drivers adjust now that the path to the title is so radically different? Does the change favor some teams more than others? Does every driver truly have a shot? Time will tell, but the many moves and changes made in the off-season give us an early idea of what those answers may be.
23XI Racing
23 – Bubba Wallace
The underlying metrics behind Bubba Wallace’s 2025 suggest he became a little streakier than in years prior. He said entering the year that he’d be pushing himself harder, and that may be the reason. While Wallace lost over three spots of average finish, he tied or bested previous highs in wins, top-fives, top-tens, and laps led. Thanks in part to a hard-fought win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Wallace looked like the most potent title contender he’s ever been.
To recreate 2025’s successes or even build upon them, the No. 23 team should focus on more commonly converting their strengths into good finishes. Bubba Wallace is an elite drafting track racer, but hasn’t won that style of race since 2021. He’s also shown steady improvement at Bristol Motor Speedway over his career, making it a track that should be circled on the 2026 calendar.
Races to watch: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Daytona International Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway
35 – Riley Herbst
Entering his second full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series, Riley Herbst still has everything to prove. He was the second lowest full-time driver in points last year, failing to notch even one top-ten. With the other two 23XI Racing cars contending for wins regularly, that simply can’t happen.
In his relatively commendable O’Reilly Auto Parts Series career, Herbst leaves hints for where he might have opportunities for improvement. He seemed to have a knack for Nashville Superspeedway with two podium finishes in four starts. His drafting track results are also stellar: Herbst had a worst finish of sixth across the four races at Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway in 2024.
Races to watch: Daytona International Speedway, Nashville Superspeedway, Talladega Superspeedway
45 – Tyler Reddick
No wins and a ninth-place points finish had to be a disappointment for a team just one year removed from three wins and a Championship 4 appearance. Tyler Reddick is undoubtedly one of the most skilled pure racers in all of NASCAR, but the No. 45 team appeared to falter while the No. 23 squad excelled. Some of that may well be a result of the focus Reddick was forced to direct toward his personal life after his son’s birth and health matters in May.
Still, there’s nothing to indicate that 2025 was anything more than an outlier. Reddick remains a threat to win at virtually any style of racetrack, and is all but a lock to earn a place in the Chase for the NASCAR Cup. With wins no longer the be-all-end-all of the championship format, Reddick’s relentless consistency may take his team further than it ever has before.
Races to watch: Circuit of the Americas, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Darlington Raceway
Front Row Motorsports
4 – Noah Gragson
In his second full season of NASCAR Cup Series competition, Noah Gragson didn’t fuel a whole lot of optimism. One top-five and three top-tens is disappointing, but it’s just as concerning that Gragson was third-lowest in the standings among full-time teams. Both of his two Front Row Motorsports teammates ran at a consistently faster pace, leaving doubt as to why the No. 4 team couldn’t compete.
If FRM’s actions this offseason are any indication, they believe a new crew chief could turn things around. Grant Hutchens was chosen as an internal promotion, having only helmed the pit box nine times prior in his NASCAR career. At face value there’s nothing to indicate Noah Gragson is poised for a breakout year. As much as any other Cup Series driver, he appears to be in a ‘prove it’ situation.
Races to watch: Talladega Superspeedway, Daytona International Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway
34 – Todd Gilliland
After steady improvements in each of his first three Cup Series seasons, Todd Gilliland hit a bit of a plateau in 2025. After switching over to the No. 34, Gilliland lost what may have been a valuable resource: the veteran presence of Michael McDowell. It’ll be pertinent to watch how Gilliland builds on his current strengths to extract better results and more points where there’s already a foundation. The numbers suggest that means drafting tracks and road courses.
Interestingly, Gilliland has a pair of sixth-place finishes in as many starts at Indianapolis. Front Row Motorsports demonstrated on several occasions that they could find speed over the course of the race in 2025, often converting strong top-20s into top-tens. If Gilliland can improve upon his average starting spot (a meager 25.5 in 2025), it’s easy to envision the No. 34 team capitalizing on strong track position.
Races to watch: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway, Circuit of the Americas
38 – Zane Smith
It’s reasonable to say that no Front Row Motorsports driver has more proven potential than Zane Smith. The 26-year-old is a Truck Series champion with two additional runner-ups, and has improved noticeably across his two years in the Cup Series. Smith finished just one point behind teammate Todd Gilliland in the 2025 standings, and showed slightly more volatility in his week-to-week finishes.
The formula for Zane Smith’s improvement appears to lie in race-long execution. The No. 38 team qualified over five spots higher (20.1) than teammate Gilliland (25.5) on average, but their average finish (21.1) was a whole spot lower than their start. Gilliland’s average finish (20.8), meanwhile, was almost four spots higher than his average start. Front Row could get the No. 38 car into at least the top 20 in points if they manage to reverse this trend.
Races to watch: Michigan International Speedway, Nashville Superspeedway, Watkins Glen International
Haas Factory Team
41 – Cole Custer
The big story for Cole Custer and Haas Factory Team is their recent switch from Ford to Chevrolet. An operational change was desperately needed after a lackluster rebound year from the team’s divorce with former co-owner Tony Stewart. Although Custer’s pace was thoroughly uncompetitive, he repeatedly made the most of those rare opportunities for a good finish. Having been in or close to the lead in both races, Custer was impressively close to sweeping 2025’s two races at Daytona International Speedway. With those being some of the only races where his car could get close to the front, it’s clear Custer was ready when his moments came.
The best case scenario for Haas Factory Team is probably top-25 speed and a possible upset win. Cole Custer is more than capable of delivering on that hope if the Chevy switch proves fruitful. Of the bottom five full-time teams in last year’s standings, the No. 41 team has arguably the most cause for optimism.
Races to watch: Daytona International Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Hendrick Motorsports
5 – Kyle Larson
In 2025, Kyle Larson reminded the world why he’s considered to be among the most elite drivers in all of motorsports. In a season with no runaway favorite, Larson went out and performed when he needed to, winning his second Cup Series championship. Though the fateful final restart at Phoenix Raceway certainly gave Larson an assist, it was he and the No. 5 team’s execution which ultimately earned them the trophy.
As Kyle Larson well knows by now, being a champion has its catch. In 2026, nothing short of going back-to-back will feel like a fulfilling followup to what the team did last year, even if they improve in every metric. Fortunately for Larson, there’s no reason why they can’t run back last year’s approach and win a third title. Larson can win at virtually every track on the NASCAR circuit, and his season-best ten stage wins showed he’s well-equipped to rapidly accumulate points.
Races to watch: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Martinsville Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway
9 – Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott’s 2025 was virtually identical to his 2024. The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team put up the same exact numbers of top-fives (11) and top-tens (19). Meanwhile, his average finish stayed within one position and his win total increased from one to two. If two years constitutes a pattern, Chase Elliott is reliable for a very specific, very solid degree of performance.
Still, that doesn’t mean there’s not room for improvement. Elliott could make major gains if he rediscovers his once elite feel for road courses. Even if he’s not outpacing Shane van Gisbergen, the No. 9 team would benefit from near-automatic stage points and top-fives in each of the schedule’s road races. Turning to drafting tracks, Elliott arguably hasn’t been getting the finishes to match his pace. Outside of a fan-favorite win at EchoPark Speedway, Elliott is largely inconsistent at tracks where he should be a perennial contender.
Races to watch: Sonoma Raceway, Martinsville Speedway, Pocono Raceway
24 – William Byron
The eye test would have had William Byron as one of the foremost contenders for the 2025 Cup Series championship. And though Byron did compete in the Championship Four, in actuality, the team battled stretches of inconsistency during the summer. Two of his three wins – Daytona and Martinsville – nearly didn’t happen, and the team didn’t appear to have the requisite speed at Phoenix Raceway in November.
Now, with long-time engineer Brandon McSwain departing to become crew chief for Ross Chastain, the ability of the No. 24 team to round out their performance will largely depend on whether they can replace McSwain’s expertise. For Byron to become a NASCAR Cup Series champion, it’ll require fewer mistakes and mechanical failures as a foundation for his already-present raw speed.
Races to watch: Daytona International Speedway, Martinsville Speedway, Iowa Speedway
48 – Alex Bowman
For seemingly half his NASCAR Cup Series career, Alex Bowman has been on the unofficial hot seat at Hendrick Motorsports. The team has never shown wavering confidence in him, and he’s at times outperformed his teammates, but Bowman is never able to fully shake the speculation that he’ll be out of a ride after any given year. Though 2025 wasn’t what the No. 48 team wanted, it was not Bowman’s worst season at Hendrick. Only an enormous surge from Carson Hocevar should realistically call Bowman’s job security into question.
Consistency aside, Alex Bowman has won only two times since his four-win 2021 campaign. A win every other year doesn’t meet par at Hendrick Motorsports no matter who the driver. So it will no doubt be a goal for Bowman to rack up multiple wins this season. After key personnel changes in the offseason including a new car chief and engineer, it appears building on race-closing strategy will be the name of the game for Bowman in 2026.
Races to watch: Circuit of the Americas, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Daytona International Speedway
Hyak Motorsports
47 – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
After a promising start to 2025, Hyak Motorsports and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. entered an abysmal stretch from the Chicago Street Course to the regular season finale. After five top-15 finishes in the first half of the season, Stenhouse failed to finish higher than 23rd until the start of the playoffs. Though they realistically weren’t going to make it in on points, there was a quiet consistency to Hyak Motorsports earlier in the year that the team failed to take full advantage of.
Hyak’s personnel lineup seems to be in a good place. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has improved noticeably at running clean races, and crew chief Mike Kelley has shown he can get about as much out of the No. 47 Chevrolet as it has to offer. The fate of Hyak in 2026 will be tied closely to how well the team can play to its strengths and how often they can hit on setups to gain points on their closest competitors.
Races to watch: Talladega Superspeedway, Iowa Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway
Joe Gibbs Racing
11 – Denny Hamlin
No driver’s path to the 2026 season is anything like Denny Hamlin’s. The offseason began after a brutally-timed caution caused his most heartbreaking championship loss yet. Then came the never-ending spectacle of his antitrust lawsuit against NASCAR, in which the two parties settled amidst a messy trial. And then, personal tragedy: in December, a house fire claimed the life of Hamlin’s father and left his mother severely injured. As a driver, team owner, and businessman, Denny Hamlin has been through the ringer. He’s emerging from that period hoping to turn hardship into triumph.
Judging by the numbers, there’s no reason Denny Hamlin shouldn’t be running for the championship. He was as potent in 2025 as he’s ever been, winning six times and missing the title by minutes. The only apparent factor that could hold Hamlin back is his own clarity of mind. No one would blame the 45-year-old for losing focus or even hanging his helmet, but he’s insistent that he makes good on his promise to Joe Gibbs to stay in the driver’s seat. If Denny Hamlin ever becomes a NASCAR Cup Series champion, it’ll be through his already-proven strength and perseverance.
Races to watch: Martinsville Speedway, Pocono Raceway, World Wide Technology Raceway
19 – Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe’s first year with Joe Gibbs Racing saw him exceed expectations and adjust to his new team quicker than most. In his first year at JGR, Briscoe won three times and finished third in the season standings. The enormous potential suggested by Briscoe’s nine-win campaign in the 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts Series season is seemingly finally being realized. Provided a strong team performance, there are few if any drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series who are tougher to beat.
Going into 2026, there are many drivers who’d be worse picks to win the Cup championship. Chase Briscoe was series-best in pole positions and top-fives, and showed repeatedly his ability to utilize aerodynamics for elite defense. With only teammate Christopher Bell logging a better average finish, expect Briscoe to build upon his breakout year.
Races to watch: Darlington Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix Raceway
20 – Christopher Bell
In the spring, Christopher Bell seemed poised for an explosive 2025 season. Four races in, he had already won three times. Not many likely expected that he’d win only once more in the following 32 races, and not until September. Still, Bell maintained consistently solid results and kept himself firmly within the championship discussion.
With Bell’s underlying metrics roughly even over the last four seasons, not a lot of change would be required to win the title. The No. 20 team has shown they can win regularly and earn points efficiently the rest of the way. As the NASCAR Cup Series transitions to the Chase format, that formula puts them in prime position.
Races to watch: Bristol Motor Speedway, Sonoma Raceway, Phoenix Raceway
54 – Ty Gibbs
2026 will be of great importance for Ty Gibbs. After three full seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing, he’s still seeking his first win and his output is stuck in neutral. Never before has JGR kept a driver who’s begun their tenure with over 100 winless starts, but the difference with this case is unavoidable. Gibbs being the team owner’s grandson wouldn’t receive so much scrutiny if he was perform
ing similarly to his teammates. Such is the nature of the many, many drivers whose careers were boosted by family connections.
In his defense, Ty Gibbs has demonstrated the potential. The 23-year-old has 17 top-fives in the NASCAR Cup Series and a dozen wins in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. His JGR fate is far from decided. This year, however, Gibbs will likely need a tremendous breakout to finally change the narrative.
Races to watch: Michigan International Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway, Darlington Raceway
Kaulig Racing
10 – Ty Dillon
The highlight of Ty Dillon’s 2025 was an improbable, inspiring deep run in NASCAR’s inaugural In-Season Tournament. Though he ultimately lost the final matchup to Ty Gibbs, it was inspiring watching one of NASCAR’s perennial underdogs consistently outperform some of the sport’s very best. That being said, the tournament doesn’t stir up a lot of newfound optimism for Ty Dillon’s career.
Entering his second full-time season with Kaulig Racing, Ty Dillon is reliable at bringing the car home intact and finding sporadic bursts of decent speed. For many team owners, that alone makes him a commodity. Kaulig doesn’t appear prepared to compete for championships just yet, and their budding relationship with Dodge via a switch to Ram in the Craftsman Truck Series can’t be great for their current standing with Chevrolet. Without any power to change any of that, Ty Dillon remains capable of racking up purse money and owner points while teammate AJ Allmendinger knocks on the door of victory lane. Dillon epitomizes the team player, and he’s likely poised for more of the same in 2026.
Races to watch: Texas Motor Speedway, Daytona International Speedway, EchoPark Speedway
16 – AJ Allmendinger
When AJ Allmendinger moved back to the NASCAR Cup Series full-time in 2025, his expectations were similar to Shane van Gisbergen’s: contend for wins on road courses, and relish in small victories everywhere else. What ended up happening was something else: frequent top-ten speed on ovals and a solid campaign to make the playoffs.
So what does that mean for 2026? Contrary to prior assessments, AJ Allmendinger is no longer a road course ringer. More and more of his best tracks tend to be ovals, and he’s seemingly just as potent across the two disciplines. At the very least, Allmendinger is more well-rounded. With Shane van Gisbergen making road course wins much harder to come by, Allmendinger’s diversification came at just the right time for him to try for the Chase.
Races to watch: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Daytona International Speedway, Sonoma Raceway
Legacy Motor Club
42 – John Hunter Nemechek
Throughout the 2025 season it was clear to the naked eye that John Hunter Nemechek was an improved driver. On top of Legacy Motor Club showing gains in speed over the final third of 2025, Nemechek in particular became a familiar sight in the top-ten. The 28-year-old had only seven such finishes to his name entering the year, and found himself with eight more when the season closed.
It’d still be a major step for Legacy Motor Club to put Nemechek in consistent contention for wins, but two top-fives is an excellent foundation to build on. Crew chief Travis Mack helped earn breakthrough wins for Daniel Suárez in the Cup Series and Michael Annett in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, and in his second year with Nemechek a win isn’t completely out of sight given where the team is now.
Races to watch: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Daytona International Speedway, Pocono Raceway
43 – Erik Jones
Don’t look now, but Erik Jones had the most top-fives in 2025 that he’s had in any season with Legacy Motor Club. The No. 43 team would’ve loved a win, but they took full advantage of the gains made by LMC over the course of the season.
The biggest change to the No. 43 this offseason has been the addition of Justin Alexander as crew chief, moving him over from Richard Childress Racing. Alexander was Austin Dillon’s crew chief for both his best and worst years in the NASCAR Cup Series. Pairing him with an upward-trending Erik Jones could potentially rule him out as one source of RCR’s sudden decline…or it could implicate him.
Races to watch: Darlington Raceway, Pocono Raceway, Daytona International Speedway
RFK Racing
6 – Brad Keselowski
In order to start 2026 off strong, Brad Keselowski is working to get himself physically ready. The 41-year-old owner/driver is recovering from a broken leg sustained while skiing in December. After a successful surgery, Keselowski opted to skip the Cook Out Clash on February 1 and turn all attention to the Daytona 500 two weeks later.
Even racing on the mend, it’d be hard for Brad Keselowski not to improve upon the first third of his 2025 season. The former NASCAR Cup champion failed to record one top-ten finish in the first dozen races of the season, before finding some pace down the line. After near-misses with victory lane at EchoPark Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway, and Phoenix Raceway, the mission this year will be returning RFK Racing to the Chase and finally converting speed into wins.
Races to watch: Talladega Superspeedway, Michigan International Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway
17 – Chris Buescher
For a while in 2023, Chris Buescher appeared poised to become a championship contender. The Texas native won three races and finished seventh in points, making massive gains over any previous year in his NASCAR career. Since then, the field appears to have caught up to Buescher; he won once in 2024 and didn’t win in 2025, and failed to qualify for the Cup Series playoffs both years.
The diversity of Chris Buescher’s skillset indicates 2023 should be the norm. Buescher is equally potent on drafting tracks, intermediates, road courses, and short tracks. Expectations are arguably higher for Buescher than even his Cup champion teammate/owner, even if he doesn’t seem to be on the hot seat.
Races to watch: Watkins Glen International, Michigan International Speedway, Phoenix Raceway
60 – Ryan Preece
One of the hardest things to do in sports is to perform in a ‘prove it’ year, and that’s exactly what Ryan Preece did in 2025. Entering his best opportunity yet after disappointing tenures at JTG Daugherty Racing (now Hyak Motorsports) and Stewart-Haas Racing, Preece was under pressure to make good on RFK Racing’s gamble. Though he fell short of a first career win or playoff appearance, it’s hard to see Preece’s 2025 as anything but a statement.
Like Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher, the expectations for Ryan Preece should be at least one win and a Chase appearance. The No. 60 team adapted quickly in their first year of operation. They earned a third-place finish in the fifth race of the season and did well at building upon Preece’s exceptional short track chops. Look for yet another step up in the second year of Preece’s pairing with RFK.
Races to watch: Martinsville Speedway, Richmond Raceway, Homestead-Miami Speedway
Richard Childress Racing
3 – Austin Dillon
Is Austin Dillon the sport’s most unique track specialist? It certainly seems like it – Dillon has earned only two top-fives in the last two seasons, both wins at Richmond Raceway. This certainly shouldn’t be the case for Dillon, though. Prior to 2024, we were used to seeing him run consistently across the schedule with race-winning speed on a variety of tracks.
Though Richard Childress Racing as a whole has continued its steep decline from dominance, it’s hard to explain Austin Dillon’s drastic regression at all but one track. Now that a Richmond win can’t guarantee him a Chase spot, it’s imperative that the No. 3 team makes gains in several areas if they hope to have a solid season. Some of the scrutiny will fall on Richard Boswell – now entering his third season as Dillon’s crew chief – who has yet to replicate his O’Reilly Auto Parts Series success in the Cup Series.
Races to watch: Richmond Raceway, Talladega Superspeedway, Daytona International Speedway
8 – Kyle Busch
After two whole seasons, it still hasn’t gotten normal seeing Kyle Busch not win races. For the driver who never went winless from 2005 to 2023, Busch has never seemed further from victory lane. The two-time Cup Series champion logged career lows in virtually every major statistic last year, indicating the dire need for a change. One might even conclude Busch was overdriving his car last year: the No. 8 had seven pit road speeding penalties last year, and Busch was hovering at a 50% crash rate well into October.
That change comes in the form of Jim Pohlman, who’s coming to work as Busch’s crew chief after three seasons with Justin Allgaier in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. Pohlman has nine wins in 103 O’Reilly races, as well as the 2024 series championship. Nobody questions whether Busch can still win provided the opportunities, which means Pohlman might be the most scrutinized crew chief in the NASCAR Cup Series this year.
Races to watch: Darlington Raceway, EchoPark Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway
Rick Ware Racing
51 – Cody Ware
Like Haas Factory Team, there’s a degree of hope to be drawn from Rick Ware Racing’s switch from Ford to Chevrolet. Not necessarily because the team is postured for leaps and bounds of improvement. It’s just that at the very least, something big changed.
Aside from that, Cody Ware realistically has the lowest expectations of any full-time NASCAR Cup Series driver. Last season he scored the fewest points in the field. Two finishes inside the top-20 is rough but ultimately a product of RWR’s general pace. 11 DNFs, meanwhile, is unsustainable and avoidable. For Cody Ware and his father’s team to make realistic progress, half the battle might just be cutting down on mechanical failures and wrecked cars. There’s no reason not to be conservative in those areas when the car’s speed isn’t sufficient when they are finishing races.
Races to watch: Daytona International Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway, EchoPark Speedway
Spire Motorsports
7 – Daniel Suárez
After five years for Trackhouse Racing, Daniel Suárez has found himself with a new home at Spire Motorsports. He replaces Justin Haley, who’s moving to the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series for Kaulig Racing. Suárez is entering into his fifth full-time seat in the Cup Series, after his most successful team pairing yet in the No. 99. As good as that tenure was, Suárez’s results fell off somewhat in 2025.
Now that he’s taking over the No. 7, Daniel Suárez should be able to take a breath and strive for realistic goals. His predecessor was sixth-lowest in points among full-time drivers in 2025, and the No. 7 team missed the top 30 in points for the second straight year. Though Suárez himself also underperformed at just two spots higher than Haley, Spire Motorsports has repeatedly demonstrated their ability to react and improve when lacking in speed.
Races to watch: Texas Motor Speedway, Daytona International Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway
71 – Michael McDowell
By all accounts, Michael McDowell’s move to Spire Motorsports from Front Row Motorsports was a success in year one. Though he didn’t win, McDowell maintained about the same pace he’s shown for the last several years in a developing organization. He remains a road course ace who’s potent on drafting tracks and occasionally dangerous on intermediates.
Another highlight: for the second straight year McDowell nabbed multiple pole positions after never winning one prior to 2024. As his average starting position has improved year over year, so has his overall speed. The No. 71 team merely replicating their qualifying prowess could position them to cash in on Stage 1 points for a strong Chase push in 2026.
Races to watch: Sonoma Raceway, EchoPark Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway
77 – Carson Hocevar
Two years into his NASCAR Cup Series career, Carson Hocevar’s combative racing style might be proving to be worth the hassle. The 23-year-old spent 2025 turning flashes of speed into near brushes with victory lane, making his fair share of enemies along the way. But until Hocevar receives retribution from NASCAR or another driver, there’s no plain reason for him to race any differently than he has.
Still, though 2025 felt like a breakout year, Carson Hocevar actually regressed in many columns from his rookie season. He finished two spots lower in points with a worse average finish despite a better average start, and suffered an unfortunate six DNFs. Hocevar is likely the best on Spire at capitalizing on speed when it’s there, but until his equipment holds its own across the board it appears consistency will elude the No. 77 team.
Races to watch: Nashville Superspeedway, World Wide Technology Raceway, EchoPark Speedway
Team Penske
2 – Austin Cindric
When NASCAR announced they were replacing the playoffs with a new variation on the chase format, the first team on many fans’ minds was Team Penske. Joey Logano skillfully utilized the system to win three championships, and Ryan Blaney was consistently rewarded for late-season hot streaks. Perhaps the least affected driver in the Penske stable is Austin Cindric.
The same things that have kept Austin Cindric from championship contention in the playoffs will continue to do so in the Chase: consistency. Cindric possesses the skillset to win on road courses, drafting tracks, short tracks, and everything in between…but his best runs are often bright spots within rashes of poor finishes. All that separates the clearly talented Austin Cindric from the success of his two teammates is the ability to minimize mistakes and stay locked in when things are working right.
Races to watch: Daytona International Speedway, Circuit of the Americas, EchoPark Speedway
12 – Ryan Blaney
Some time around 2023, Ryan Blaney flipped the switch. For the last three seasons Blaney has had the most consistent race-winning speed of any Ford driver in the field, and he’s already logged a championship to show for it. Entering 2026, the changing of the title format presents no reason why Blaney isn’t still a favorite to come out on top.
Already in 2025 the No. 12 team took a big step toward success in the Chase. Their group led 852 laps, fifth most of any Cup Series team. They translated that into nine stage wins, third behind only Kyle Larson and William Byron (ten each). Stage points are potentially more important than ever to securing a high playoff seed, and Ryan Blaney was responsible for nine of Ford’s 19 stage wins last year. If he remains consistently strong at maintaining track position, a second championship might be on the horizon.
Races to watch: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix Raceway, Iowa Speedway
22 – Joey Logano
Don’t let the narrative fool you: Joey Logano is no less dangerous without the playoffs. The 35-year-old three-time champion needs only to clinch a Chase berth to potentially ride his annual autumn hot streak to yet another Cup Series title. Even last season, when the magic seemingly ran out, Logano finished top-five in four of the last ten races.
At the same time, the No. 22 team has to improve their consistency. For two straight seasons they’ve scored only 13 top-tens, the fewest Logano has ever had since joining Team Penske in 2013. He failed to log double-digit top-fives for the second straight year, also unprecedented in Logano’s Penske career. The answer seems to be pace, pure and simple. If the No. 22 Ford can make gains on intermediate tracks and road courses, they’ll be most of the way there.
Races to watch: Richmond Raceway, Martinsville Speedway, World Wide Technology Raceway
Trackhouse Racing
1 – Ross Chastain
Going into his fifth year for Trackhouse Racing, Ross Chastain finds himself seeking to graduate from race winner to championship contender. He seemed poised to make that accolade stick in 2022 when he finished second in the championship race and the final standings. But since Chastain’s breakout year, he’s tended to be a step behind the pace that put him on the map.
This year, he’ll be working with crew chief Brandon McSwain, a former race engineer at Hendrick Motorsports. This, along with a points format which caters more toward Chastain’s capacity for consistency, places him in the best position yet to make another run at a NASCAR Cup Series championship.
Races to watch: Circuit of the Americas, Phoenix Raceway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway
88 – Connor Zilisch
What does a successful 2026 look like for Connor Zilisch? The answer to that question couldn’t be more subjective. On one hand, Zilisch is coming off a blistering ten-win season in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. On the other, the learning curve between the two series has seemingly never been steeper. Shane van Gisbergen’s outlier 2025 aside, no Cup Series rookie has won multiple races since Denny Hamlin in 2006. Conventional wisdom suggests it’s more likely than not that Zilisch doesn’t win at all.
Still, don’t write the 19-year-old phenom off just yet. If 2025 proved anything, it’s that Connor Zilisch is no ordinary prospect. He broke records left and right in his first full O’Reilly Auto Parts Series season, despite his relative youth and two significant injuries. On top of that, Zilisch has proven in various forms of motorsports that he’s as quick a learner as they come. And he’s working with a race-winning crew chief in Randall Burnett. If he can convert to win on a road course, expect Zilisch to be a factor – if not a slam dunk – in the Chase for the NASCAR Cup.
Races to watch: Circuit of the Americas, Coronado Street Course, Kansas Speedway
97 – Shane van Gisbergen
The rules by which NASCAR Cup Series drivers are measured simply don’t apply to Shane van Gisbergen. He’s a unique case entirely, having not touched a NASCAR steering wheel until 2023 yet having already won six times in mostly dominant fashion. On road courses, van Gisbergen can be nearly unbeatable. On ovals he’s still rough around the edges, but his improvement was quick and tangible across the 2025 season. That became doubly clear after van Gisbergen was eliminated from the playoffs.
Without the playoff format to incentivize van Gisbergen’s ‘trophy hunting’ career arc, it will be more important than ever that he refines his craft on oval tracks. There simply aren’t enough road courses on the schedule to be a pure specialist and expect to make a championship run. But if van Gisbergen’s No. 97 team can pair road course dominance with consistent top-ten speed the rest of the way, expect to see them outpace several of NASCAR’s elite.
Races to watch: Coronado Street Course, Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International
Wood Brothers Racing
21 – Josh Berry
In 2025 Josh Berry led the Wood Brothers to their best points finish since 2020, and their first win outside of drafting tracks since 2017. The team’s speed seemed most apparent on short and intermediate tracks. Still, for a team billed as the fourth Penske car, the expectation for Berry in 2026 has to be more than another unfruitful Chase entry. There hasn’t been this much momentum behind the Wood Brothers since Ryan Blaney drove for them.
One of Josh Berry’s strengths seems to be that he capitalizes when his team provides him with fast equipment. To whatever extent that the Wood Brothers, Team Penske, and even Ford as a whole can make gains on their raceday performance, Berry can be expected to ride that wave to proportionately strong results. If those groups tread water, we may be in for another year hunting top-tens with a potential win mixed in.
Races to watch: Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway
