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Every Driver Who Can Become a NASCAR Champion at Homestead

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All three top nationally touring NASCAR series will crown a champion at Homestead Miami Speedway. Ten drivers can exit the final weekend of the NASCAR season as a series champion. From veterans of their series to unproven drivers on a breakout run and everything in between, no two journeys to championship contention are the same.

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series

Honeycutt (L) and Riggs (R) | Eryn Harris: ATYL Medi

The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, as it has been a majority of the season, will come down to a two-man battle between Kaden Honeycutt and Layne Riggs.

Kaden Honeycutt: Leader

Kaden Honeycutt goes into the championship race piloting his truck for the championship defending team. He has won four races in the 2026 season, including one at the intermediate of Kansas Speedway and three in the last eight races. Honeycutt is in his second full Truck Series season and first in the Tricon Garage No. 11 Toyota Tundra. Before he got to Tricon, the 23-year-old showed flashes of brilliance at intermediates for Niece Motorsports. In four starts on traditional mile-and-a-halves in 2026, Honeycutt has not finished worse than third, but his best finish in three Homestead starts is only tenth.

Layne Riggs: -20

Layne Riggs has been the dominant driver of 2026, but misfortune at Kansas and Bristol Motor Speedway allowed Honeycutt to take the lead. In Riggs’ third full season, all driving for Front Row Motorsports, Riggs has won six races. Two of these wins came on a traditional 1.5-mile track, but these are his only top-5s on them in 2026. Notably, the 24-year-old finished runner-up at Homestead, but his only other start was a 22nd-place result. If Riggs wants to win the championship, he might need to finish one spot better.

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series

Five drivers will enter Homestead in mathematical title contention.

Justin Allgaier: Leader

Like Riggs in his respective series, Justin Allgaier has been the dominant driver in the O’Reilly Series in 2026. Also like Riggs, misfortune in the Chase has cost him points to the field, but unlike Riggs, he will enter Homestead with the points lead. The 40-year-old has won six O’Reilly races this season, but none have come on a traditional 1.5-mile track. However, he does have four top-5s in seven starts on the track type and is the defending Homestead O’Reilly winner. While he does not need to go back-to-back, it will ensure that Allgaier’s eleventh full season driving the JR Motorsports No. 7 will see a second championship.

Jesse Love: -22

Back-t0-back is the goal for Jesse Love, both in winning the season finale and the series championship. The reigning series champion entered the penultimate race at Martinsville Speedway in the points lead, but an issue for the Richard Childress Racing No. 2 in that race handed the lead to Allgaier. While Love has never won on a 1.5-mile track, he has five top-5s on them this season and has an average finish of fifth in two Homestead starts. It will likely take a third win of both the season and the Chase, but the 21-year-old could very realistically bring the championship home to RCR in a tragic season for the organization.

A graphic symbolizing the O’Reilly Series championship battle | nascaroreillyap on Instagram

Corey Day: -23

Corey Day looks to be the first O’Reilly driver since Ty Gibbs to win the championship in his first full season. Given both that he has won the last two 1.5-mile races and his mentor Kyle Larson’s strength at Homestead, there is a very strong chance that the 20-year-old driving for Hendrick Motorsports will win the championship. If Day can show his growth from this season, and not regress to questionable moves such as at EchoPark Speedway and Darlington Raceway, the championship could be his.

Carson Kvapil: -31

Carson Kvapil needed to win at Martinsville to keep his season alive, and he delivered for his third win of the season. 1.5-mile tracks have not been Kvapil’s strength, with only one top-5 on the track type in his career, but it came during the last race on one in Las Vegas. The 23-year-old was not full-time in the JRM No. 1 this season, but will be full time in the No. 8 in 2027 partially due to his strong 2026 season. A championship would go a long way to ensure long-term security in NASCAR.

Sheldon Creed: -42

The only way Sheldon Creed can be the 2026 O’Reilly champion is a victory at Homestead and difficult runs for his rivals. Lucky for Creed, he has three victories and three top-5s on 1.5 tracks this season. Back-to-back fifth place finishes at Homestead are strong for Creed, but it will undoubtedly take a win for the Haas Factory Team No. 00 to win the championship. This could also be Creed’s last chance to win an O’Reilly title, as his sixth season in the series will be spent at a winless Sam Hunt Racing.

NASCAR Cup Series

Kyle Larson: Leader

Larson, the title favorite | Eryn Harris: ATYL Media

Kyle Larson has been dominant in the Chase. Three victories, six top-5s, and only one finish below ninth have allowed a nearly-full race lead. In order to clinch his third title, Larson will need a 29th-place finish or nine stage points. In four Homestead Gen-7 starts, Larson has two victories, but one finish outside the top-30. Additionally, Larson has four top-5s and six top-10s on 1.5-tracks this season, but two finishes below 28th. So long as the Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 team performs as they have for most of the Chase, then a three-time champion will be crowned.

Christopher Bell: -67

There is one way that Christopher Bell can win his first championship: A second victory at Homestead and double-digit stage points. This victory was one of his two top-5s at Homestead, but these are the 31-year-old’s only top-10s at the track in the Gen 7. Additionally, the driver of the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 has top-5s on 1.5-mile tracks this season, including two of his infamous eight runner ups this season.

Denny Hamlin: -70

Like Bell, Hamlin needs a victory to bring a title home to Joe Gibbs Racing. The No. 11 has been very strong on 1.5 tracks this season, with one victory, seven top-5s, and nine top-10s on the track type. Despite having four wins this season, Hamlin has not won since sixteenth race of the season. A 20-race winless streak will need to be broken if the 45-year-old wants to win the title in his 21st year of trying. Otherwise, Hamlin will complete his 21st year of frustration.

My Picks

Denny Hamlin will see a 21st-year of frustration, as I believe Kyle Larson will win his third title. His protegee Corey Day will join him as a NASCAR champion. Finally, while Hamlin will not, the No. 11 Toyota will win a championship with Honeycutt.