Iowa Speedway and Daytona International Raceway are all that stand between twelve drivers and a chance at the 2026 Chase.
As was the case last event, seven drivers sit within a race of the Chase cutline. From first time winners to rookies to series veterans, these seven drivers all have a very different path to ending up on the bubble. While not the chaotic race the O’Reilly Series sometimes produces at Indianapolis, there were still major changes to the Chase battle.
To keep up with the cutline battles in the O’Reilly and Craftsman Truck Series, check back weekly at ATYL Media.
Virtual Locks and Eliminations
Carson Kvapil, Sheldon Creed, Corey Day, Brandon Jones, and Austin Hill joined Justin Allgaier and Jesse Love as drivers mathematically locked into the Chase. While not mathematically locked in, Sammy Smith is over one race (+98 points) to the cutline and will make it pending two disastrous races and great races from the drivers right on the bubble.
On the flip side, Brennan Poole, Dean Thompson, Jeremy Clements, Jeb Burton, and Harrison Burton joined by Blaine Perkins, Patrick Staropli, Josh Bilicki, Lavar Scott, Kyle Sieg, and Ryan Ellis as mathematically eliminated drivers. Anthony Alfredo is over one race below the cutline (-121), and, while he is still mathematically in contention, back-to-back wins at Iowa and Daytona might be required to have a chance.
Above the Cutline
+59: Parker Retzlaff
Parker Retzlaff did not have a special day at Indy, earning an 11th-place finish with no stage points, but the 23-year-old driving for Viking Motorsports did not necessarily need one. Despite losing 12 points to the cutline, Retzlaff still sits in prime position to make the Chase.
Iowa saw a 13th-place finish in 2025 driving for Alpha Prime Racing and superspeedways like Daytona are usually kind to Retzlaff. Matching 2025’s result will likely not be enough for Retzlaff to clinch his Cinderella Chase berth a race early, but his best career season is highly likely to result in one.
+29: Sam Mayer
Ten stage points softened the blow of a somewhat disappointing 13th-place finish at Indy for Sam Mayer. Despite these stage points, Mayer still lost four points to the Chase cutline in a season where executing races has been difficult.
Mayer will need to execute at Iowa, a track he remains undefeated at. While a third consecutive win is not required for Mayer to make his fifth postseason, he can not afford to lose points to the cutline. The 23-year old for Haas Factory Team has only finished one of the four superspeedway races this season, and can not count on a strong points day at Daytona.
+13: Brent Crews
Brent Crews earned a sixth-place at Indy, but only two stage points meant he lost five points to the Chase cutline. Like most tracks the 18-year-old Joe Gibbs Racing prospect is racing this season, Indy was brand new to him, and like most races this year Crews had a strong finish.
Iowa is one of the few tracks that is not new to Crews, as he earned a runner up at the venue in the 2025 ARCA Menards Series race. Heading into the Iowa race with track experience, plus an impressive runner up at Talladega point to a fairly easy path to the Chase. All Crews needs to do is keep up the good results and avoid a fourth DNF in a nine race stretch and he will be a Chase driver in his rookie season.
+7: Taylor Gray
Indy represented Taylor Gray’s entire 2026 season in one race. He had the speed, but the execution was not there and he earned a worse result then he probably should have gotten. A 12th-place run with only three stage points on the day was not indicative of the speed Gray had, a pit road penalty cost him track position.
Gray’s only start at Iowa saw a 17th-place, and the 21-year-old only has one finish better than 27th-place in three Daytona NOAPS starts. That one finish was a top-five, and Gray has had the speed to be a Chase driver, but the No. 54 JGR team will need to execute on that speed to secure a second consecutive postseason berth.
Below the Cutline
-7: William Sawalich
It’s all JGR right at the cutline. Sawalich had the biggest points swing of any bubble driver, earning 10 stage points and a top-five finish to gain 14 points on the cutline.
Sawalich has two runner ups at Iowa in ARCA East competition and an 11th-place in his only O’Reilly start there in 2025. The 19-year-old has not finished top-10 in three NOAPS Daytona starts, and has historically struggled at superspeedway racing. Gray has shown more speed, but Sawalich has gotten the finishes when it matters, so it will be a heated battle for which teammate makes the Chase.
-20: Rajah Caruth
There is also the possibility that neither teammate makes the Chase. A bold call enabled Rajah Caruth to win Stage 2 at Indy, only losing three points to the cutline. Caruth returns to JR Motorsports for the rest of the season, who have been far and away the team to beat in 2026.
Caruth does not have the best ARCA Menards Series results at Iowa, a 9th and an 11th in two starts, but those starts came years ago. JRM is the team to beat at superspeedways, with the 24-year-old earning three top-10s in four races on the track type this season. While Caruth is at a points deficit, he has an advantage in both equipment and experience (Caruth is 24 compared to 20 year old Gray and 19 year old Sawalich).
-74: Ryan Sieg
Ryan Sieg needed a top-five day, and instead finished 17th-place and lost eight points to the cutline. While Sieg is still within one race of the cutline, he will need to duplicate past Iowa success to enter Daytona within contention. It is very likely that Sieg will need to finally earn his first career victory to have a chance at contending. The 39 year old driver owner earned his first of five runner ups at Iowa, and has two at the superspeedway of Talladega.
Owner’s Chase
Due to the slight differences in driver and owner points (Kvapil and Zilisch splitting the No. 1, Crews missing four races in the No. 19, and Caruth splitting the No. 88 with three of Hendrick’s Cup drivers), there is a difference in the battle for the Driver’s and Owner’s Chase.
The Richard Childress Racing No. 2 and Hendrick Motorsports No. 17 joined the JRM No. 1, 7, and 88 entries as entries locked in. RCR’s No. 21, HFT’s No. 00, JGR’s Nos. 19 and 20, and JRM’s No. 8 all have over a one race lead on the cutline.
Four full-time entries sit within one race of the cutline. The Viking No. 99 sits 52 points above and the HFT No. 41 sits 22 points above. The JGR Nos. 54 and 19 sits 22 and 29 points below respectively. The RSS No. 39 remains in contention, but sits 96 points out and will likely join every entry behind it in points in being eliminated following Iowa.
